Monthly Archives: April 2009

Yogi Berra made our title popular in his day, and it has been quoted often since. It has many connotations if you think about it. Another Berraism that is very “au courant” is one that Yogi borrowed from the physicist Niels Bohr, which says “it is tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” In fact, as our members have seen, we frequently make predictions, forecasts, prognostications, and share our hallucinations about the future. Empirical data shows that we have been blessed with insight and clarity much more than most others. Our outcome (performance) has been different than most because our methodology is unlike theirs. This comes from the thesis that if you want a different outcome than the crowd, you must have a different input. So, we began formulating and testing our system back in 1995, and have been improving it ever since. Continue reading →

NOW: It’s only been seven weeks since the March 6-9 market lows, but feelings of panic and doom are no longer on our minds. Most people are back using hope and prayer as their investment strategies, even though they’ve seen their portfolios decimated by those same passive, arms-length concepts.

Nothing has changed in the world: banks are not lending, foreclosures are not lessening, unemployment is still skyrocketing, Bernanke and Geithner are still printing money, GM and Citigroup are still likely to enter bankruptcy or be nationalized, and taxpayers are still paying for the mistakes of the “inner circle” at the top of the business and government ladders. Continue reading →

Here’s our latest portfolio tracking spreadsheet with updated performance numbers as of 24 April 2009. Please click on the thumbnail below for an expanded view.

Since the inception of our official model portfolio in June ’08, as of this week our portfolio is +166% after commissions with nearly 93% winning trades overall, and an average hold time of less than 10 days.

Real-time risk management is the name of the game here, folks. Note that this week we closed winning trades with both TNA (triple leveraged S&P ETF) and TZA (inverse triple S&P ETF), in some cases on the very same day. With our composite decision support model, we’re able to ladder our entries and exits to take advantage of developing patterns in both directions – even at the very same time if conditions allow. This is one of the benefits of following an egoless, emotion-free trading system. Continue reading →

My Rabbi often says, “Nothing scares me more than when someone says they’re sure about something”. Certainty is in the eyes of the beholder. “REALITY” is personal, never universal. What one knows to be true is ONLY the truth created inside the head of the individual. No two people share the identical reality. Therefore, when the crowd gets to a point of “shared certainty”, like at Dow 14,000 when they were certain 20,000 was coming, or at Dow 6500, when they were certain it was THEN time to sell, the opposite direction becomes the play of highest confidence. Continue reading →

Here at TWW, we thought we were clear in understanding the cause of the global economic mess as one of over leverage. In other words, TOO MUCH CREDIT LEADING TO TOO MUCH DEBT LEADING TO TOO MUCH DEFAULT LEADING TO STRUCTURAL FAILURE OF THE HOUSE OF CARDS. If true, the solution would be to reduce credit, debt, and default. Yet, our government is spending trillions of our and future generations money ramping up credit to levels of biblical importance. Trying to buy and spend their way out of a disaster created by buying and spending will ultimately fail.

The planet has transformed in just the past year from spending to conserving…everything! Earth Hour has led to Earth Day; imagine what Earth Week or Month will do to the economy? Coupon clipping, cheap chic, Craig’s List, Prius driving, etc., are all the rage. Therefore, the government is behind the curve of what the mentality of the population is focusing on. No wonder the programs to date have done nothing to fix the problems we’re all buried under. This is the exact reason the current stock market rally is doomed to fail in the coming months, not years, and the March lows will not just get tested, but obliterated on the way to the final lows near Dow 3500 +/- 500 in the next couple years. PREPARE! Continue reading →

NOW: We’re about to get Q1 earnings and the spin, denial, and blame should be interesting to behold. Of course nobody will actually take the blame for crushing their companies and investors if there is a national crisis they can blame. Our title above, “FLAT…The New Up!”, is probably optimistic if truth be told. After seeing a year of market meltdown, bank failures, housing collapse, and consumer retrenchment, believing that the earnings reports and future forecasts represent the whole truth is like believing the Bernanke/Geithner team has any more actual control over life than the Wizard of Oz. It was all smoke and mirrors in that movie, as it is here too. Continue reading →

NOW: While putting the final touches on a more extensive comment, to be published in the next day or two, we thought we’d send this out for those who are shorter term oriented.

MARKETS ARE OVERBOUGHT AND IN NEED OF A HEALTHY CORRECTION. There is an alternate wave count that allows a very deep correction, perhaps new lows in some sectors, including the NDX.

We are taking the second 1/3 off the table here at today’s open of 7950, booking our profits from that entry at 7600. This keeps us at 1/3 remaining in the market currently. We’ll add more exposure on a break above 8300 or below 7000 (to put us back at 2/3 exposure). Continue reading →