Friday Pre Open

Only the Dow made new highs, after our last BOOM warned if imminent new highs, but the overnight futures are higher, allowing the others to follow through at the open.  Quadruple expiration will be half way done after the open, leaving only the close to finish the process.  However, today is also re-balancing day for several indices, which will make the final hour even more volatile than it normally would be.

Tuesday's full moon +/- trading day so far capped the herd's mood, and enthusiasm, even is slight new highs are still in the cards.  Dow already reached within 150 points of the 16,350 "ideal" target of this thrust.  It may squirt up there, dragging the others with it, but Rut may not get above the Nov. peak.

Thursday's close saw the a/d close at 1.3:1 negative, taking the M.O.'s a bit below the zero line.  And, Vix rose a bit after Wednesday's 22%, one-day crash, which nearly reached the lower BB already.  Closing below that BB will set up the opposing short term Spx sell signal to the short term Spx buy signal triggered last week.  Then, combined with the Hindenburg Omen, on the clock into mid-April, odds strongly favor several days/weeks of decline.  Remember, odds have now moved from random to statistically significant for a 25% market crash, as long as the H.O. is active.

Crude is back to the big resistance around 100 +/-1, but with slightly diverging daily stochs.  104 +/-1 is next resistance, which the rising weekly stochs allow, in what will be labeled as a 'c' wave, as DSE illustrated back at the Nov. low near 93.

Metals are lightly higher, but after the slaughter of this week, the pattern doesn't look complete, and further price probing below 1180 are likely, with 1100 +/-75 likely the coming and best buying opportunity in gold since early '10, just before the 90% rise into 1900.  DSE strongly warns NOT to be short here.

Tbonds are still awaiting the finale of the decline from the '12 peak near 152, which will likely target the 124 +/-2 zone.  Then, a multi month rise back toward 138 +/-2 is probable.

Dollar is still ballistic after the FOMC put the exclamation point on the corrective decline from the Sept. peak.  Next, at least 82 is projected, but above 83 points to 85 quickly.   Euro's test of the DSE's 1.38 resistance target Wednesday, before the massive reversal, likely ended the entire rally off the '12 low near 1.20; also as DSE forecast back then.  Check the archives for June-August '12 for the actual comments.  Next, a decline, lasting years, should be beginning that takes prices below 1.20, toward 1.05 +/-.05, which will stress the European Community to the brink of disbanding.

In '99/'00, the Dec.-January (February in the Ndx) period was characterized with manic buying, without reason, which led to the greatest reversal/crash since the Great Depression.  As if market conditions haven't been manic enough, with the Fed announcing the reduction of a 5-year historic stimulus program, the few weeks could be crazy.  But, like the "if/then" of all parabolic rises (and declines), once complete, there is ALWAYS a return to the point where the parabola began.

More in a bit...

 

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Ken Goldberg is a Registered Investment Adviser, and is the president and chief market strategist at Trading With Waves. Connect with me on Google+
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