Bitcoins go ballistic

Bitcoins past 4 yearsand have 'crash' written all over them.  We don't know if $1030 is the top, or whether $1500, or even $2000+ will be, but be certain that within a year, if not weeks-months, Bitcoins will be far below $300 (the "craziness" high from April of this year), and possibly below $100.  They began this year around $14.  The Winkelvoss twins have hit the home run again, perhaps bigger than their FB score.  The only question here is whether they'll capture it, or end up like the Hunt brothers, who tried to corner the silver market in 1980.  History teaches the latter, but have they studied the past?

tslaWhy must Bitcoins crash?  All parabolically rising curves end the same way; back at the origin of the parabola.  WaveBOOM is known far and wide as THE source for pointing this out at/near the ends of these "herding" phenomena.  The list is long, but includes the recent move in tsla this year, as well as nflx; tpx; qcom, cmgi, jdsu, yhoo, msft, csco, intc, and dozens of others in '00; aapl in '12; silver in '11; goog in '07; and gmcr in '11, to name a few.  Like our notoriously early Nasdaq exit at 3500 in Nov. '99, before the blow off to 5200 at the March '00 peak, the current market has the same risk, but unlikely the same reward potential.  That final 50% rise in the final four months of that mania has already occurred since last

nflxI've added several rungs to ladders below.

A/d is 1.6:1 positive, but the "halls of wealth" are very thin today.

NFLX is now at the Fibo 62% resistance of the decline last month, that took 100 points off the price in 24 hours.  Say bye bye, Carl.

Finally, and for the last BOOM of the week and month (yes, we're closed Friday, as there will be nothing going on), here's the Nasdaq's monthly bar, going back to the Nasdaq"salad" days of the "exuberant" 1990's.  It shows the DSE's exit, where we thought was irrational, in '99 at 3500, before the final months of 50% blow off.  Some of you were members back then, as well as attended our Nov. '07 Disaster Conference here in Seattle, when we warned of the GOOG slide that was about to take prices from 700+ to sub-300.

Here's the forecast for the next few years.

Happy Thanksgiving to one and all.

goog

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About twwadmin

Ken Goldberg is a Registered Investment Adviser, and is the president and chief market strategist at Trading With Waves. Connect with me on Google+
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