July Or Die!

NOW: Our last WPA (WavePredictor Alert) was titled “Obviously Means Obviously Wrong” as guru Joe Granville often taught. Again, the market has schooled those that failed to study history, and are doomed to repeat it (no offense to George Santayana for linking him to Granville).

We warned our followers as the Dow approached 9000 that mania had returned to the markets. Since we never know in advance how manic a mania will become, we tightened protective stops in our CONSERVATIVE MODEL PORTFOLIO, and were taken out of our most recent “100% long exposure” trade at 8774. Since then, the Dow has fallen 470 points to this mornings low (so far) and we remain safely sidelined in cash or equivalents, awaiting the next high confidence entry. We don’t care if that becomes another long play, or a short play. We only care that it’s highly confident. Continue reading

“Obvious Means Obviously Wrong”

Flamboyant market soothsayer Joe Granville was famous for saying “If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong!” In other words, by the time the average person recognized something, it’s too late to benefit by the knowledge. He often went so far as taking the opposite view or position of the crowd. This contrarian stance has created his infamy. Continue reading

Flash Strategy Update 01 Jun 2009

It’s dangerous out there and although we got long today, we see current risk as high and growing daily. We had hoped for a pullback under 8000 to prolong the next rally wave, but that doesn’t appear to be unfolding. Instead, our alternate path is likely manifesting, meaning an immediate stretch toward 9500 +/- 500. Although many of you believe yourselves to be smart enough to catch the move higher, then exit, and avoid the coming wealth slaughter, I guarantee you are not that good. Continue reading